Shirvan, of Caspian Report , an independent writer in Baku, has just produced this credible projection of how war between the US and Iran might unfold and widen in the video essay below. It has certainly been my expectation, as written recently, that attacking Iran would simply not work. But Shirvan’s video essay puts flesh on how war would likely spread. It is difficult to understand how planners could contemplate opening the door to this deliberately or by inadvertance.
The essay draws attention to the 2002 American war game "Millennium Challenge" in which US forces wished (cost of war game $250m) to demonstrate latest technology. Unfortunately the Blue Force (US) was effectively destroyed in two days by Red Force (unspecified middle eastern) whose commander used old technology and surprise to avoid detection and achieve the sinking of an aircraft carrier and more. The games were stopped after those two days and the rules changed to ensure Blue victory. Real life isn't like that. Information at Wikipedia.
It is unfortunate that the Australian Government is silent on this when should be alert and outspoken. We simply need to make clear to the US and the Australian public that we will not join a war with Iran; indeed we should firmly discourage such a thing. It is clear from this forecast that the destabilisation begun with the Iraq war would be multiplied many times, oil supplies disrupted, the global economy set back... to name some of many costs. I note that the UK seems mumblingly supportive of the US, a classic path to war.
I received advance notice of this posting to YouTube because I am a 'patreon' of Shirvan's Caspian Report. An inexpensive way to encourage independent thinking. Please consider also doing so.
The essay draws attention to the 2002 American war game "Millennium Challenge" in which US forces wished (cost of war game $250m) to demonstrate latest technology. Unfortunately the Blue Force (US) was effectively destroyed in two days by Red Force (unspecified middle eastern) whose commander used old technology and surprise to avoid detection and achieve the sinking of an aircraft carrier and more. The games were stopped after those two days and the rules changed to ensure Blue victory. Real life isn't like that. Information at Wikipedia.
It is unfortunate that the Australian Government is silent on this when should be alert and outspoken. We simply need to make clear to the US and the Australian public that we will not join a war with Iran; indeed we should firmly discourage such a thing. It is clear from this forecast that the destabilisation begun with the Iraq war would be multiplied many times, oil supplies disrupted, the global economy set back... to name some of many costs. I note that the UK seems mumblingly supportive of the US, a classic path to war.
I received advance notice of this posting to YouTube because I am a 'patreon' of Shirvan's Caspian Report. An inexpensive way to encourage independent thinking. Please consider also doing so.
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